A major shake-up: What does Trump's victory mean for Ukraine, and can he put an end to the conflict?
Donald Trump has won the U.S. presidential election. His official powers will be transferred to him after the inauguration on January 20, 2025, but even now, Ukraine and the world are closely monitoring his statements and actions. What does Trump's victory mean for our country, and can he put an end to the war? This is covered in the material by RBC-Ukraine.
Trump has won. Why the U.S. president's role is important for Ukraine
Preliminary results indicate that Donald Trump is leading his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris by 5 million votes. More importantly, he has secured the support of 277 electors, which is sufficient to become president.
Thus, the Republican has ensured his second presidential term nearly four years after leaving the White House. During a meeting with supporters in Florida, he has already proclaimed himself the 47th elected president of the United States.
"This is a political victory like America has never seen before... I will not rest until we create a strong, safe, and prosperous America. One that our children deserve and you deserve. This will truly be a golden age for America," he stated.
The U.S. president holds the broadest powers compared to other leaders of Western democracies. Unlike most such countries, the U.S. does not have a prime minister, and it is the president who manages the entire administration.
Donald Trump is already celebrating his election victory (photo Getty Images)
The president is the head of the executive branch, the commander-in-chief of the army and navy, has veto power over bills passed by Congress, and determines foreign policy, which is particularly significant for Ukraine, as the U.S. is its main partner and military and financial donor.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described Trump's victory as remarkable. In his congratulatory message, he recalled their meeting in September in New York, when they discussed strategic partnership, plans for victory, and ending Russian aggression.
"I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach in global affairs. This principle will genuinely bring us closer to a just peace in Ukraine. I hope we can realize it together," he noted, adding that he expects bipartisan support in the U.S.
Other leaders also mentioned Ukraine in their congratulations to Trump. For example, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed hope that his administration would put an end to regional and global crises, "especially the Palestinian issue and the Russian-Ukrainian war."
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán called the victory "very necessary for the whole world." His foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, emphasized that "after almost a thousand days of war, there are more chances for peace in Ukraine than ever."
"I am not going to start wars; I am going to end them. We did not have wars, we had no wars for four years. Except that we defeated ISIS," Trump stated today.
Nevertheless, the elected U.S. president is known for his ambiguous statements regarding Ukraine. Therefore, in the context of his intentions, there are more questions than answers.
What does Trump's victory mean
During the presidential campaign, Donald Trump criticized the Biden-Harris administration for increasing financial and military aid to Ukraine. He is dissatisfied that the U.S. allocates billions instead of striving for a ceasefire.
At campaign rallies, he said that "Ukraine is destroyed and beyond restoration." He claimed that during the years of war, there has not been an agreement that would be better than the current situation. He referred to President Zelensky as the best salesman on Earth, implying that he supposedly leaves the U.S. with $60 billion after each visit.
From October 2023 to April 2024, due to Republicans in the House of Representatives, a large aid package for Ukraine was blocked. Despite the Ukrainian government's claims of bipartisan support in Washington, it was clear that the prospect of Trump's victory weighed heavily on Kyiv, as noted by Politico.
Donald Trump promised Volodymyr Zelensky to work on a "good deal" (photo president.gov.ua)
His unpredictability leaves many uncertain about what to expect from his second presidency. His return to the White House promises a significant shake-up, and the most dramatic changes may indeed affect Ukraine.
Trump won at a challenging moment. Moscow is advancing in the Donbas, which Vladimir Putin aims to capture completely. It is possible that, in light of previous statements, Ukraine may have to adapt to a sharp reduction in U.S. support, which could be crucial on the battlefield, according to CNN.
Vladimir Fesenko, head of the Center for Applied Political Studies "Penta," is cautious in drawing conclusions. In his view, Trump's victory is not the worst scenario.
"It would be much worse if the U.S. plunged into a political crisis. This is a significant risk for the whole world, for international security. It also presents an opportunity for Putin and China, not to mention Iran and North Korea. We could lose American support for an indefinite period," he told RBC-Ukraine.
Another troubling scenario would be Kamala Harris's victory, considering that the Republican Party has gained a majority in the Senate and is close to success in the House of Representatives. "In that case, last year's story would repeat itself. And again, we could temporarily lose support," the political scientist noted.
Regarding support, it can be predicted that Trump will advocate for a change in format.
"There is a high probability that financial and budgetary assistance will cease. This is not only his position but also that of many Republicans. Trump counts the money, and there will be no free aid. There will only be military assistance—in the form of loans or Lend-Lease. Financial issues will be resolved by the new Congress. It is not certain that they will be resolved quickly, but perhaps by early December, we will learn about new ideas and proposals," Fesenko added.
This topic will serve as leverage. "If we do not agree with Trump's proposals, military assistance may be halted. Therefore, we will agree to negotiations, with a separate strategy for the U.S. and a different one for the Russian Federation," the source noted.
Can Trump stop the war
Right now, there is no answer to this question. Donald Trump has repeatedly praised Putin and criticized Zelensky, with whom he has a complicated history. He has also stated that the Russian invasion would not have happened if he were president. He vowed that he would allegedly stop the war within 24 hours before taking office as president.
At the debates, Trump refused to answer whether he wants Ukraine to win. He then hinted that Ukraine should "give a little ground to Moscow." "If they made a bad deal, it would be much better. They would give a little, and everyone would be alive," he said.
Shortly after, Trump met with Zelensky and promised to work on a "good deal for both sides." "I think by January 20 (the day of inauguration - ed.) we can come up with something good. The time has come," he emphasized at that time as a presidential candidate.
Trump has repeatedly praised Vladimir Putin, but it is unclear whether he will agree to negotiations (photo Getty Images)
Zelensky presented him with a victory plan and stated that he is open to negotiations, but they must be conducted from a position of strength. Recently, he mentioned that he hasn't heard Trump express a desire to reduce support for Ukraine but acknowledged that "the next U.S. president may strengthen or weaken" it.
Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI, London) Tim Willasi-Willasi speculates that Trump may call Putin as early as November 6. "Any such call will create expectations for a settlement through negotiations, and discussions may begin in the early months of 2025," he was quoted by CNBC.
Such a call is quite possible, but it will not resolve the issue of negotiations, explains Vladimir Fesenko. For them to begin, moderators from Trump, Putin, and Zelensky need to be appointed.
"Moreover, negotiations can only be informal for now. First, it is necessary to agree on the format, where they can take place, and what the agenda will be. Putin may agree, but will present unacceptable 'wants' for Ukraine. Negotiations may happen, but they will be very complicated, and I do not expect quick results," the political scientist noted.
It remains unclear what exactly Trump's plan consists of. According to the Financial Times, it may involve a rethinking of the Minsk agreements, with enforcement mechanisms monitored by European troops. It may also include a freeze of the conflict, the establishment of demilitarized zones, and Ukraine's refusal to join NATO until "Putin leaves the scene." Furthermore, threats to collapse