It's not just about Trump or Harris. Here's why the U.S. Congressional elections matter significantly for Ukraine.
On November 5, the United States will hold not only presidential elections but also a Congress refresh. Why these elections are significant and how they might affect support for Ukraine – read in the article by RBC-Ukraine journalist Roman Kot.
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Alongside the presidential elections, the U.S. will also see elections for 13 governors and both chambers of Congress. The lower chamber is the House of Representatives, where congressmen are elected from small districts in each state. The upper chamber is the Senate, which has two representatives from each state. The entire House of Representatives will be re-elected, while the Senate will see a one-third turnover.
"For Ukraine, this plays an even greater role than who leads the country itself. Because the president is not the final word. The president is one of the branches of power," says RBC-Ukraine associate expert at the "Institute of American Studies" Oleg Prelovsky.
Congress allocates aid to Ukraine. The difficulties of this process were made evident by the four-month saga over voting for aid to Ukraine at the beginning of this year. At that time, in favor of the electoral campaign, Trump-aligned congressmen blocked the allocation of aid to Ukraine in the House of Representatives.
Another crucial question is who will be the Speaker of the House. As head of this body, he has the authority to bring bills to a vote or not. The current Speaker, Mike Johnson, was the figure who directly blocked the passage of the Ukraine bill.
House of Representatives Elections
As in all parts of the U.S., elections are held using a majoritarian system. Currently, the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is very slim – 221 votes against 214 for the Democrats.
"There are relatively few competitive electoral battles among the more than 400 seats in the House of Representatives that will determine control over this body. Current polls show that Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats in controlling the House, but it's very close to fifty-fifty, and the winning party will likely have a marginal majority," says RBC-Ukraine executive director of the American non-profit organization Renew Democracy Initiative, Uriel Epstein.
According to The Cook Political Report, there are 205 electoral districts where Democrats are guaranteed to win. Republicans have 208 such districts.
In the remaining 22 districts, the main battle is being fought.
For instance, in New York, both parties are vying for six suburban districts, five of which were unexpectedly won by Republicans in the last election by appealing to issues of inflation and illegal immigration. However, this year, polls indicate that in many of these districts, Democrats and Republicans have statistically equal ratings. Over $110 million has already been spent on advertising in these districts.
Five districts in California are also significant, which unexpectedly went to Democrats in the last election. Interestingly, a substantial portion of the population here is Latino. As in New York, representatives of both parties have nearly equal ratings, even though California as a state supports Democrats in presidential elections.
The other "swing" districts are scattered across the country.
Senate Elections
In the U.S., senators are elected for six years. The Senate does not refresh all at once; instead, one-third is renewed every two years. In this election, 34 senators are being re-elected.
"While members of the House of Representatives work on a state level and more interact with voters on a party level, the Senate operates a bit differently. Senators deal with statewide issues," explains Prelovsky.
Currently, Democrats control 47 seats, with 4 independent senators collaborating with them. Republicans hold 49 mandates.
In the case of the Senate, there's an interesting nuance – if the number of Democrats and Republicans is equal, then the deciding vote is cast by the Vice President of the United States, who presides over the Senate.
To gain a majority, Republicans need to win two additional seats if Harris becomes president or one if Trump wins. This is quite likely.
Campaigning for candidates in Delaware (photo: Bay to Bay News)
"Republicans are expected to gain control of the Senate by a couple of seats. There are Democratic candidates who are at risk of losing their seats, such as Jon Tester from Montana and Sherrod Brown from Ohio, and very close races are anticipated in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin," says Epstein.
The majority of the mandates contested this year are currently controlled by Democrats and their allies, totaling 23 out of 34 seats. Republicans are up for re-election in 11.
"For Ukraine, it will also be important which states provide which representatives in the Senate. Because some states do not hide the fact that they are more interested in domestic politics than foreign affairs," says Prelovsky.
As CBS News notes, the elections of senators in 11 states will be crucial: Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Nevada, Texas, Arizona, Florida, Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Nebraska.
Of these, 5 are "swing" states where the fiercest battles are taking place, including in the presidential elections.
Trump and Harris Rush to Help
Prominent politicians like Harris, Trump, and others frequently join the campaigns for the House of Representatives and Senate.
For instance, in New York and California, Democrats are relying on mass advertising and the expectation that the presidential elections will boost turnout among their voters. Harris has made several campaigning trips across California, her home state.
Conversely, Republicans are taking more active steps in these two locations. Their candidates are being promoted by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson and Trump himself. The presidential candidate was in California in mid-October and held a large rally at the legendary Madison Square Garden in New York at the end of the month.
Donald Trump's campaigning in New York (photo: Spectrum News NY1)
Interestingly, the event in New York later played a trick on Trump. During the rally, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe used offensive language, calling Puerto Rico a "floating island of garbage." The scandal was only resolved by a miracle, largely due to Joe Biden's clumsy response, who also referred to Trump's supporters as "garbage."
Engaging VIP campaigners in district elections can have varying effects, and the outcome is not always obvious. According to Epstein, it's a million-dollar question: Will Trump and Harris help the candidates from their parties in the field, or will strong candidates enhance Trump and Harris's votes?
Epstein cites examples from North Carolina and Arizona. In the former, the Democratic Party's candidate for governor, Josh Stein, significantly outpaces his radical Republican opponent. The actual result is likely to be less lopsided, but in many polls, Stein has a lead of more than ten points. Meanwhile, the presidential race in North Carolina is extremely tight, with Trump holding a slight edge.
"In Arizona, the Senate race shows a Democrat with a decent advantage – significantly less than in North Carolina, but still. And this advantage is over an unpopular Republican candidate. However, significant battles are taking place in Arizona in the presidential campaign. Thus, Stein in North Carolina and Gallego in Arizona could either lift Harris – or Harris could elevate them.
Adding to the complexity is the presence of different factions within both parties, says Prelovsky. There is a faction among Republicans that informally still opposes Trump. For this part of the party, his statements are too radical. Likewise, the Democrats have a strong left wing, sometimes referred to as even Marxist.
At the same time, in majoritarian districts, the candidate's personality – their charisma, local connections, and reputation – plays a significant role beyond political affiliation.
Post-Election Risks and Ukraine's Interests
After the presidential and congressional elections, several scenarios are possible. In the first, Republicans maintain control of the House of Representatives and gain the Senate. In such a case, the president's post will be of great importance. Either he will have a fully loyal Congress or a completely hostile one.
However, there is also a significant likelihood that after the elections, Congress will be divided, with different parties controlling different chambers. This could lead to several problems.
On January 6, members of Congress will gather to count the electoral votes, thus officially confirming the election winner. In a situation where the presidential race is extremely tense, one of the candidates may simply refuse to concede defeat. At least, Trump has hinted at