Trump's Week: What has changed for Ukraine following the U.S. elections, and what can we anticipate moving forward?

Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election is sure to result in a global political earthquake, the effects of which will be felt in Ukraine as well. To learn what Trump has said and done regarding Ukraine in the past week and what to expect in the future, read the piece by RBK-Ukraine journalist Roman Kot.

Almost a week has passed since Trump won the U.S. presidential election, and the tension in global politics seems to be rising. Media outlets, politicians, and experts around the world are tracking every leak of information and hint regarding Trump's potential stance on various international issues. The situation in Ukraine is certainly one of the key topics.

Personal Contact Between Zelensky and Trump

The U.S. president will officially be elected only in early January. However, this is merely a formal procedure, and most world leaders began to congratulate Trump as soon as his victory became apparent. Importantly, on Wednesday, November 6, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also called Trump.

"It was a good, productive conversation. Of course, we still cannot know what his specific actions will be. But we hope that America will become stronger," Zelensky said on November 7 at the European Political Community summit in Budapest.

The conversation lasted about half an hour. Billionaire and close Trump ally Elon Musk was also present during the call. As noted by BBC Ukraine, Zelensky briefly thanked Musk for providing Ukraine with "Starlinks." The conversation with Trump did not touch upon serious, substantive issues, but it was described as "warm."

The Russian dictator also attempted to reestablish contact with the newly elected U.S. president. On November 7, during a speech at the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin stated that he congratulated Trump on his election and was ready to engage in discussions, claiming that Russia was prepared to work "with any U.S. president whom the American people trust."

On November 10, the Washington Post reported, citing its sources, that Trump and Putin had a phone conversation. According to the publication, the American politician urged the dictator to avoid escalation in Ukraine. However, subsequently, Putin's press secretary, Peskov, denied that such a call took place.

"We do not comment on private conversations between President Trump and other world leaders," said Trump's communications director, Steven Cheng; meanwhile, the fact of the conversation was confirmed by the news agency Reuters, citing its own sources. "Did they talk or not?" – speculations on this topic gained traction on social media throughout Monday. Eventually, Trump himself added fuel to the fire by publishing a screenshot on Truth Social listing the world leaders he had already spoken with after his victory, with Putin notably absent.

Plans for Ukraine and Their Denial

In the contacts between Trump and Zelensky or Putin, there is only talk of gauging opinions. There have been no clear details about Trump's plan for Ukraine "within 24 hours," and there still aren't any. Judging by leaks in Western media, there is still no unified vision among the new U.S. president's circle.

For instance, The Telegraph reported, citing sources close to Trump, that he might call on European and British troops to establish a buffer zone between the Ukrainian and Russian armies as part of a war freeze. Additionally, Ukraine would need to agree to refrain from joining NATO for 20 years. According to the publication, this is supposedly one of the plans being considered by Trump.

Donald Trump (photo: Getty Images)

Another variant of the plan, reported by The Wall Street Journal, also involves Ukraine refraining from joining the alliance for 20 years, but Washington would continue to supply Ukraine with weapons to deter further Russian attacks.

On November 9, former senior Trump advisor Brian Lanza stated that the new president's administration would focus on achieving peace in Ukraine. However, this does not imply maintaining Ukraine's territorial integrity. According to Lanza, the Trump administration would request a realistic vision for peace from Kyiv.

"If President Zelensky sits down and says: we can only have peace if we get Crimea, he will show us that he is not serious," Lanza said in an interview with BBC.

Subsequently, a representative of Trump's transition administration told Reuters that Lanza was merely expressing his personal opinion, and his contract ended with the elections.

Trump is still assembling his team and formulating political positions, so such statements should be viewed through the lens of the competition for positions.

"This is a conference of people who aspire to or present themselves for specific positions, which play a role in internal dynamics. Therefore, they are trying to demonstrate their awareness and that they could be useful," said Alexander Leonov, executive director of the Center for Applied Political Studies "Penta."

What Kind of People Trump is Looking for in His Team

Essentially, resolving personnel issues is paramount for Trump. So far, there aren't many confirmed updates on this front. It is known that the new U.S. permanent representative to the UN will be Elise Stefanik. She is a member of the Armed Services Committee and the House Intelligence Committee but lacks diplomatic experience. She has been a staunch Trump supporter since his first presidency.

In Trump's new team, there will be no two individuals known for their "hawkish" stance on foreign policy.

These are Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the UN from 2017 to 2018. She was a rival to Trump in the intra-party elections this year, thus considered his personal enemy.

Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State and CIA Director during Trump's first presidency, will also not hold any positions. Importantly, Pompeo is a board member of the Ukrainian company "Kyivstar."

All of this indicates that the most consistent supporters of Ukraine from Trump's previous administration will not be part of the current one, according to Vladimir Dubovik, director of the Center for International Studies at Odessa National University.

"This time, Trump wants to surround himself only with people who are absolutely loyal to him and would not dare to contradict him, and who generally share his approaches. Since Trump is critical of support for Ukraine, such people have no place in the team. Probably, individuals like Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, David Sachs, and others, who also do not believe in further support for Ukraine, will have more weight," Dubovik noted.

Leonov agrees: "I think Trump is deliberately distancing himself from such heavyweights who might oppose him, who might have their own opinions, and so on," the expert said.

Among the candidates for the position of Secretary of State, a key role in foreign policy:

• Richard Grenell, former ambassador to Germany and acting Director of National Intelligence;

• Marco Rubio, senator from Florida;

• William Hagerty, senator from Tennessee and former U.S. ambassador to Japan;

• Vivek Ramaswamy, former presidential candidate and ardent Trump supporter.

The ambition to lead the State Department, among other things, is reflected in their rhetoric. For example, Marco Rubio, who previously leaned towards supporting Kyiv, stated after Trump's victory that the war in Ukraine "has reached a deadlock" and needs to be stopped.

Trump's Inner Circle and Ukraine

In such circumstances, the role of those within Trump's inner circle becomes crucial. One of his key advisors remains billionaire Elon Musk. It is worth noting that he has a highly ambiguous position on supporting Ukraine. On one hand, he provided "Starlink" systems for the Defense Forces. On the other hand, he made statements about the need to end the war without Ukraine reclaiming its territories. He even blocked "Starlink" operations when Ukraine used them in operations against Russia, which, in the U.S. view, could lead to excessive escalation.

According to CNN, Musk is unlikely to hold an official position in Trump's team. Instead, he will join a kind of advisory committee. This will allow Musk to maintain influence without being subject to the restrictions imposed by public office.

Another figure who is deemed to exert decisive influence on the new U.S. president's views is Donald Trump Jr. He consistently takes an anti-Ukrainian stance. Most recently, on November 9, in an Instagram story, Trump Jr. reposted a video with Zelensky and Trump, captioning it: "You will lose your aid in 38 days."

Post by Trump Jr. (photo: instagram.com/donaldjtrumpjr/)

"Yes, Trump Jr. has consistently held an anti-Ukrainian position for a long time. On the other hand, his stance reflects his good understanding of his father's sentiments. This only confirms that those who claimed that Trump's anti-Ukrainian rhetoric and that of his circle was merely some pre-election maneuver were mistaken. The elections have passed, they won, and the rhetoric remains unchanged. Because it